Netflix is expected to help Western Europe reach more than 55.1 million subscription video on-demand customers by 2021, up from just 32.9 million this year.
Nearly one-third (31.5%) of Europe’s TV households are expected to subscribe to an SVOD provider by 2021, more than doubling the 14.1% of households that subscribed to a video on-demand service at the end of 2015, according to a new report from Digital TV Research. The report said more than 8 million subscribers will be added in 2016 alone.
While Netflix is forecast to remain dominant in Western Europe for the coming five years, Amazon Video is expected to challenge the streamer as it deploys in 15 Western European countries by the end of next year. Amazon penetration is expected to grow 50% to 21% by 2021, with Netflix declining 2% to 47% from 51% in the same time period.
The Nordics are expected to continue to lead in the region in terms of SVOD penetration, with the United Kingdom also seeing string growth.
Penetration in France, Germany, Italy and Spain are forecast to be below the Western European average.
The U.K. accounted for a third of SVOD subscribers in 2015, but the proportion will fall to a quarter by 2021. SVOD growth will be more modest in France, Italy and Spain. The Netherlands and Sweden will have more SVOD subs than Spain in 2021, despite having much smaller populations.
Western European SVOD revenues will total $5.87 billion by 2021, from $2.15 billion in 2015.