Pay-TV revenues slipping in mature markets as APAC, Africa growth soars

Pay-TV revenue in more than 20 mature markets –- including the United States, Canada and France — is forecast to decline between 2013 and 2020, with a new report warning that the years of high-speed global growth are over.

Nevertheless, according to a new report from Digital TV Research, “Digital TV World Revenue Forecasts,” rapid growth will continue in emerging markets, including those in China, Brazil and India, with the largest concentration of high-growth markets being in Africa.

Overall, pay-TV revenues will increase $16 billion globally to will increase $209 billion in 2020, from $193 billion in 2013. By contrast, revenues grew by $24 billion between 2010 and 2013.

North American revenue is forecast to decline nearly $9 billion between 2013 and 2020, a 9% drop. Western Europe will decline by 1.6%.

Much of the decline in mature markets will be caused by increased competition between satellite, cable and IPTV providers, driving prices down across the world.

Analyst Simon Murray, who authored the report, said U.S. service providers would see revenues from subscriptions and on-demand content fall by $7.9 billion between 2013 and 2020, with revenue in Canada declining by $888 million, and falling $399 million in France, $283 million in the United Kingdom and $201 million in the Netherlands.

In the U.S., which Murray said would retain its position as the largest pay-TV market, cable TV revenues will drop by $11.9 billion, satellite TV seeing a $1.5 billion increase in revenue and IPTV increasing $2.5 billion.

Revenues are forecast to grow by nearly $15 billion (up by 47%) in the Asia Pacific region and more than double in Sub-Saharan Africa to $5 billion.

Murray said pay TV revenues will more than double in 40 countries between 2013 and 2020. India’s revenues will climb by $6.6 billion between 2013 and 2020, with Brazil up $2.4 billion, China increasing $2.2 billion, Japan up $1.3 billion and Indonesia up $1.1 billion, Murray said.

Other findings include:

Satellite TV revenues will reach $99.9 billion in 2020, up from $69.3 billion in 2010 and $87.8 billion in 2013.

Satellite TV revenues will overtake cable TV revenues in 2014.

Global cable TV revenues peaked at $90.9 billion in 2011, and will fall to $80.3 billion in 2020.

Cable operators will gain extra revenues by converting subscribers to bundles.

Digital cable TV revenues will reach $79 billion in 2020, an 18% increase from $67.2 billion in 2013.

IPTV revenues will climb to $26.1 billion in 2020 from $16 billion in 2013, a 63% increase.

Analog cable TV revenues will plummet by $19.4 billion between 2013 and 2020 to only $1.4 billion.

Stay tuned.

Jim O’Neill is Editor of Videomind and Principal Analyst at Brightcove. You can follow him on Twitter @JimONeillMedia and on LinkedIn