Online TV, video revenues to exceed $42 billion by 2020

Global online TV and video revenues are forecast to exceed $42.3 billion in 2020, an increase of more than 123% over expected 2014 revenues of $19 billion, and a whopping 968% increase from 2010’s $3.96 billion.

The kicker? Those figures are only for online and TV revenues delivered over fixed broadband networks for 51 countries… more on that later.

This report, from Digital TV Research, forecasts the United States to remain atop the heap in terms of global market share, but says its lead will erode substantially

In the U.S., 2020 revenues are forecast at $15.5 billion, up 565% since 2010 revenues of $2.3 million.

Its share, however, will decline to 37% from the 59% it saw in 2010.

China’s revenues are forecast to explode over the rest of the decade, rising more than 8,097% to exceed $3 billion in 2020 from just $37 million in 2010, moving it into second place globally behind Japan.

Online TV and video advertising is forecast to exceed $18.1 billion in 2020, up from $8.3 billion expected in 2014 and $2.4 billion in 2010, a 118% increase in the next six years.

SVOD revenues are forecast to increase to $168 billion in 2020, DTVR said, up 119% from $7.65 billion in 2014 and more than 1,482% from 2010.

The U.S, share of SVOD in 2010 was 75% on revenues of $793 million in 2010. Its share in 2020 will tumble to just 36% of the world market, despite an increase of 667% to $6.1 billion.

DTVR said PPV revenues would expand rapidly, reaching more than $2.8 billion in 2020 from $197 million in 2010, and forecast TVOD revenues of $4.6 billion, up from $332 million in 2010.

But, as I mentioned earlier, key to all of this is the caveat that these revenues represent just those delivered from fixed broadband networks.

A UN Broadband Commission report this week said broadband was the “fastest growing technology in human history,” and said broadband would be available to more than 50% of the world’s population by 2017.

But, it said, some 80% of users will access broadband from a mobile device, either a tablet, smartphone or ultratablet.

Ooyala’s Global Video Index, meanwhile, said mobile video views made up more than 25% of all video views in Q2 2014, and forecast that number to increase to more than 50% by 2016.

While the fixed broadband network is forecast to grow rapidly through the end of the decade, the mobile market, ultimately, is likely to be an even bigger force in driving online TV and video growth in the same time period and beyond.

Stay tuned.

Jim O’Neill is Editor of Videomind and Principal Analyst at Brightcove. You can follow him on Twitter @JimONeillMedia and on LinkedIn