As North American pay-TV revenues slide, APAC will see big growth by 2021

Tougher times ahead for global pay-TV providers as new research says the world’s pay-TV providers will see revenues grow by just $99 million in 138 countries by 2021, a compound annual growth rate of 0.01%.

The study, from Digital TV Research, says 2021 revenues will hit $205.9 billion, virtually flat from the $205.83 billion recorded in 2015. Revenues in 2016 are expected to reach $207.19 billion and to peak slightly higher in 2018 before eroding as OTT continues to gain ground against pay-TV.

Between 2010 and 2015, pay-TV revenues globally grew by a CAGR of 3.62%.

DTVR forecast North American pay-TV revenues to slip $13.5 billion between 2015 and 2021 to $98.1 billion.

The report’s author, Principal Analyst Simon Murray, noted that while cord cutting and cord shaving will be responsible for some of the loss, discounting packages and bundling services will drive revenues – and margins for pay-TV services specifically – down.

Murray said most of the rest of the world would not follow the North American experience.

“True, pay TV revenues will fall in 27 countries between 2015 and 2021, but not to the same extent as in Canada and the U.S.,” he said. “Most countries are nowhere near the market maturity achieved in North America.” 

Excluding North America, pay TV revenues will climb by $13.6 billion (up by 14%) between 2015 and 2021 to $107.82 billion, having recorded $20 billion growth (up by 28%) between 2010 and 2015. North America’s share of the global total will fall from 57.4% in 2010 to 54.2% in 2015 and 47.6% in 2021.

While Western Europe will see flat revenues at $31 billion, Asia Pacific revenues will grow.

APAC is expected to add $8 billion between 2015 and 2021 to $40 billion. The region overtook Western Europe in 2014, and will be larger than the whole of Europe by 2019.

Pay-TV revenues elsewhere between 2015 and 2021:

Sub-Saharan Africa revenues will increase 63%, up $2.5 billion, to $6.45 billion.

Middle East & North Africa revenues will rise 26%, up by $1 billion, to $5.02 billion.

Eastern Europe revenues will be 9.9% higher to $5.97 billion.

Latin America will add a further $1.6 billion (up by only 9.1%) between 2015 and 2021, to $19.5 billion.

While revenues will decline for 27 countries between 2015 and 2021, operators in 19 countries will see revenues grow.

Most of the fast-growth nations by percentage increase will be in Africa, with Myanmar, Laos, Oman and Bangladesh providing exceptions. India’s revenues will climb by $3.5 billion between 2015 and 2021 to $7.8 million, with China up by $1.9 billion to $11.7 billion.

Stay tuned.

Jim O’Neill is Editor of Videomind and Principal Analyst at Brightcove. You can follow him on Twitter @JimONeillMedia and on LinkedIn