777M SVOD subs by 2023; revenues to top $69B

Netflix and Amazon Prime Video are forecast to have more than 40% of global SVOD subscription by 2023 (312 million), says Digital TV Research in its newest report. Services in China are expected to have 235 million subs and “other” services in the United States and globally about 230 million. That offers a solid opportunity for growth among other major SVOD services as well as for new entrants.

Globally, SVOD growth is expected to top 111% as it reaches 777 million subscribers, up from 368 million in 2017.

The US market is expected to add 76 million subscriptions over the next five years, a 58% increase to 208 million by 2023. It will cede its market share leadership to China, which is expected to have 30% of the world SVOD subscriptions compared to 27% in the US.

As of 217, the US had 36% market share. China is expected to add 138 million subs from 2017’s 97 million. Neither Amazon nor Netflix currently operate in China.

In all, DTVR expects 11 countries to have more than 10 million SVOD subscriptions by 2023.

Demand drives content flow

SVOD growth will drive demand for content, too, with the biggest subscriber increases likely to come to services that have the most original or premium content available. Content costs are expected to continue to climb as well, with rapid production and automated delivery capabilities critical to increasing ROI.

Global SVOD revenues, meanwhile, are forecast to reach $69 billion by 2023, an increase of 176% from nearly $44 billion from 2017. The US is expected to add $17 billion between 2017 and 2023. That will take its total to $29 billion (a 142% rise). The US remains the most valuable SVOD market in the world.

In an earlier report, DTVR forecast overall OTT revenues, including ad-supported content, globally are expected to reach $129 billion in 2023, up from $53 billion in 2017.

US revenues are expected to be the richest in the world at $47.7 billion (up from $22.9 billion in 2017). China will grow to $25.96 billion from $8.79 billion, the United Kingdom increasing to $6.8 billion from $2.98 billion, Japan increasing to $5.34 billion from $2.57 billion and Germany growing to $3.82 billion from $1.64 billion.

The bottom line

But, again, “others” are expected to play a significant role. And, they’ll also help grow the AVOD category, as well.

AVOD revenues are expected to increase to $39.61 billion from $14.38 billion, an increase of more than 175%. Obviously, there’s plenty of room for growth among ad-supported services in the ROW.

Stay tuned.

Jim O’Neill is Editor of Videomind and Principal Analyst at Brightcove. You can follow him on Twitter @JimONeillMedia and on LinkedIn