2020 Vision: APAC pay-TV revenues to pass $41B, as IPTV growth soars

Pay-TV revenues in the APAC region will climb to $41.25 billion by 2020, an increase of some $10 million from 2014 as pay-TV household penetration increases to nearly 70%, driven in large part by the growth of IPTV.

But, while revenues will double in seven countries, including India, which is seeing huge growth, competition from over-the-top services and reduced pay-TV margin as a result of increased bundling, will result in revenues falling in Australia, Hong Kong and several other developed markets.

The report, from Digital TV Research, said cable TV will remain the highest pay TV earner, with revenues at $23 billion by 2020. As more countries complete their planned digital transition, digital cable TV revenues will grow to $22.54 billion, up 63% since 2014. Analog cable will become as rare as a VHS tape in a late-model car, with revenues falling to $560 million from $6.20 billion in 2014.

“The number of homes paying for IPTV will overtake pay satellite TV subscribers in 2018,” said Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research. “IPTV revenues will climb to $7.13 billion by 2020, up from $4.43 billion in 2014. However, pay satellite TV revenues will remain higher than IPTV.”

And, Murray said, India will generate $4.15 billion of the region’s $11.06 billion satellite TV revenues in 2020.”

Increasing pay-TV penetration in APAC will add some 142 million new subscribers, taking the region’s pay-TV subscriptions to 642 million by 2020. Digital pay-TV subs will increase to 628 million by 2020 from 163 million in 2010, with digital pay-TV penetration climbing to 67% from 44% in 2014.

As usual, China is forecast to supply the biggest raw number of pay-TV TV households, forecast to reach 323 million by 2020. India will provide 179 million.

China has been the most lucrative pay TV market in the region since 2012 when it unseated Japan from the top of the leader board. By 2020, India is expected to pass Japan into second place. DTVR said China, India and Japan will account for two-thirds of the region’s $42 billion pay TV revenues by 2020.

Revenues from pay TV will more than double in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Laos, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan by 2020.

But, warned the report, competition from OTT, and an increasing number of subscribers who opt for service provider bundles, will results in declining pay-TV revenues in Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Singapore and Taiwan, with low growth expected in South Korea.

Stay tuned.

Jim O’Neill is Editor of Videomind and Principal Analyst at Brightcove. You can follow him on Twitter @JimONeillMedia and on LinkedIn